乘数模型在评价成都市演唱会经济中的应用
西南科技大学, 数理学院, 四川绵阳 621010
| 摘 要： | 2023年疫情防控措施解除后，演唱会经济迅速复苏并呈现出强劲增长势头。本文旨在探讨演唱会旅游消费行为与成都市经济增长之间的关联。基于经济学中的乘数模型，本文选取了2023年疫情开放后成都市演唱会行业的统计数据，重点分析演唱会对成都市经济的影响，构建了演唱会乘数模型以定量评估其推动成都市经济发展的效果。本文基于道格拉斯生产函数的乘数理论，给出了乘数的估计表达式，并采用最小二乘拟合法计算出成都市演唱会乘数。通过计算演唱会收入乘数，可以量化和分析演唱会对地方经济的带动作用。具体而言，演唱会收入乘数反映了演唱会收入的绝对变化对本地区GDP产出的增量效应。实证研究结果表明，成都市演唱会收入乘数效应显著。演唱会不仅直接拉动了成都市的旅游业发展，吸引大量游客和消费，还通过消费扩散效应，间接促进了相关产业如餐饮、住宿、交通和零售业的增长。同时，频繁举办的大型演唱会提升了成都市的品牌形象，增强了城市文化影响力，吸引了更多国内外知名艺人和大型演出项目落地。演唱会经济显著促进了成都市文化产业的发展，形成了文化与经济的良性互动，推动了区域经济的持续增长。 |
| 关 键 词： | 道格拉斯生产函数; 最小二乘法; 演唱会经济; 乘数模型 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.wjms.2024.01.002 |
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收稿日期: 2024-05-22
接受日期: 2024-07-01
在线出版日期: 2024-07-18
The Application of Multiplier Model in Evaluating Chengdu's Concert Economy
School of Mathematics and Physics, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China
| Abstract: | After the lifting of pandemic control measures in 2023, the concert economy rapidly revived and exhibited strong growth momentum. This paper aims to explore the relationship between concert tourism consumption behavior and economic growth in Chengdu. Based on the multiplier model in economics, this study selected statistical data from Chengdu's concert industry post-pandemic in 2023, focusing on the economic impact of concerts on Chengdu. An economic multiplier model for concerts was constructed to quantitatively evaluate their effect on Chengdu's economic development. Using the multiplier theory from the Cobb-Douglas production function, we provided an estimated expression for the multiplier and calculated Chengdu's concert multiplier using the least squares fitting method. By calculating the concert revenue multiplier, we can quantify and analyze the economic impact of concerts on the local economy. Specifically, the concert revenue multiplier reflects the incremental effect of changes in concert revenue on the region's GDP output. Empirical research results indicate that the concert revenue multiplier effect in Chengdu is significant. Concerts not only directly boosted Chengdu's tourism industry by attracting numerous visitors and spending but also indirectly stimulated related industries such as dining, accommodation, transportation, and retail through consumption diffusion effects. Additionally, the frequent hosting of large-scale concerts enhanced Chengdu's brand image, strengthened the city's cultural influence, and attracted more domestic and international renowned artists and major performance projects. The concert economy significantly promoted the development of Chengdu's cultural industry, creating a virtuous cycle between culture and economy and driving sustained regional economic growth. In summary, this study confirms the significant role of the concert economy in driving Chengdu's economic development. Through quantitative model analysis, it clarifies the specific contributions of concerts in promoting tourism and enhancing the city's brand image. |
| Keywords: | Cobb-Douglas Production Function; Least Squares Method; Concert Economy; Multiplier Model |
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