通过多维可靠性方法预测全球未来的艾滋病死亡率
1. 上海海洋大学, 工程学院, 上海 201306
2. 江苏科技大学, 船舶与海洋工程学院, 江苏镇江 212003
3. 北京中科链源科技有限公司, 数据科学组, 北京 100000
| 摘 要： | 【目的】艾滋病是一种传染性疾病，具有高传染性，可在全球范围内传播，发病率和死亡率都很高，给全球公共卫生带来了巨大负担。该疾病的非平稳性和复杂性，因此对这种现象进行建模具有挑战性。很少有数学模型可以使用，因为流行病数据通常不是正态分布的。【方法】本文描述了一种新的生物系统可靠性方法，特别适用于多区域环境和卫生系统，在足够长的时间内观察，从而对高致病性病毒爆发概率进行可靠的长期预测。传统的多区域过程时间观测统计方法不能有效地处理大区域维数和不同区域观测之间的相互相关性。在这项研究中，选择了世界所有国家年度的记录的艾滋病患者人数。【结果】若世界各地环境和流行病学条件下的公共卫生系统管理得当，预测100年重现期风险水平为2.2%。【结论】这项工作旨在对最先进的方法进行基准测试，这使得从动态观察到的患者人数中提取必要的信息成为可能，同时考虑到相关的地域映射。本文提出的方法开辟了准确预测多区域生物系统流行病爆发概率的可能性。 |
| 关 键 词： | 艾滋病; 可靠性; 概率预测; 动态系统; 公共卫生; 数理生物学 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.wjms.2023.02.002 |
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收稿日期: 2023-08-08
接受日期: 2023-09-18
在线出版日期: 2023-09-19
Projecting Future Global AIDS Mortality Through Multidimensional Reliability Methods
1. College of Engineering, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2. School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212003, China
3. Data Science Group, Beijing Zhongke Lianyuan Technology Co, Ltd, Peking 100000, China
| Abstract: | [Objectives] AIDS is an infectious disease that is highly contagious, can spread globally, has high morbidity and mortality, and poses a huge burden on global public health. The non-stationarity and complexity of the disease makes modeling this phenomenon challenging. Few mathematical models are available because epidemiological data are usually not normally distributed. [Methods] This paper describes a new approach to biosystem reliability that is particularly applicable to multiregional environments and health systems that are observed over a sufficiently long period of time to provide reliable long-term predictions of the probability of outbreaks of highly pathogenic viruses. Conventional statistical methods for multiregional process time observations cannot effectively handle large regional dimensions and inter-correlations between observations in different regions. In this study, the annual number of recorded AIDS patients in all countries of the world was selected. [Results] If public health systems under environmental and epidemiologic conditions around the world are properly managed, the predicted 100-year return period risk level is 2.2%. [Conclusion] This work aims to benchmark state-of-the-art methods, which make it possible to extract the necessary information from dynamically observed patient numbers, taking into account the associated geographical mapping. The methodology proposed in this paper opens up the possibility of accurately predicting the probability of epidemic outbreaks in multi-regional biosystems. |
| Keywords: | AIDS; Reliability; Probabilistic Prediction; Dynamic Systems; Public Health; Mathematical Biology |
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