Risk Assessment of Water Inrush in Coal Seam Floor Based on a Dynamic Variable Weight Model and 3D Probability Space Comparison
1. Binhu Coal Mine, Zaozhuang Mining (Group Co., Ltd.), Zaozhuang 277599, China
2. Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China
3. Geophysical Survey Team of Shandong Coal Geology Bureau, Jinan 250100, China
| Abstract: | Mining under the Ordovician limestone aquifer is severely threatened by coal seam floor water inrush, which endangers mining safety. Traditional fixed-weight evaluation models for coal floor water inrush risk have prominent limitations: they ignore the internal variability among index values, easily distorting prediction results and failing to meet the demand for accurate risk assessment. To address this issue, this study proposes a dynamic variable weight evaluation model for coal floor water inrush risk based on the Improved Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IFAHP) and Entropy Weight Method (EWM). First, after comprehensive analysis of hydrogeological data, six key evaluation indicators were selected, including Ordovician limestone water pressure, Ordovician limestone water abundance, aquifuge thickness, fragile rock ratio, fault fractal dimension, and floor failure depth. Subjective weights from IFAHP and objective weights from EWM were then combined to obtain comprehensive weights. Subsequently, the K-means algorithm was applied for unified clustering analysis of the indices to define variable weight intervals and construct the dynamic variable weight model. Based on this model, ArcGIS was used to classify Ordovician limestone water inrush risk into four levels and generate a risk zoning map for the 16th coal seam floor. Validation with known water inrush points and comparative analysis with the constant-weight model demonstrated that the proposed IFAHP-EWM dynamic variable weight method has higher prediction accuracy and better spatial adaptability. Additionally, 3D visualization of the risk zoning map was developed to enhance practical application. This model provides a reliable theoretical basis and practical tool for improving the safety of coal seam floor mining under Ordovician limestone aquifers. |
| Keywords: | Water Inrush Risk Assessment; Improved Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process; Entropy Weight Method; Dynamic Variable Weight; K-means Clustering |
| DOI: | 10.57237/j.wjese.2026.01.001 |
View:
Downloads:
收稿日期: 2025-11-28
接受日期: 2025-12-29
在线出版日期: 2026-01-20
参考文献
| [1] | Cao, Y. Q., 1997. Research on the basic theory of floor water bursting and water prevention and control principle in mining face. Jour Geol & M in Res North China, 1997(03): 19-20. |
| [2] | Sun, W. J., Wang, Y. W., Li, X. K., Yang, W. K., He, Y. C., Wu, F. H., 2015. Analysis on Hydrogeological Classification and Water Inrush Accidents in North China Coal Mines. Coal Engineering, 2015, 47(06): 103-105. https://doi.org/10.11799/ce201506033 |
| [3] | Zhao, Q. B., Zhao, B. W., Fu, Y. G., Nan, S. H., Zhao, Z., 2016. Research on key technology to control Ordovician limestone water disaster on surface region of deep mining depth mine. Coal Science and Technology, 2016, 44(08): 14-20. https://doi.org/10.13199/j.cnki.cst.2016.08.003 |
| [4] | Liu, Q. M., Hu, J. W., 2011. Research on method of water-resisting coefficient for distinguishing floor water inrush danger. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science, 2011, 3: 238-245. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.proeps.2011.09.089 |
| [5] | Wu, Q., Fan, Z. L., Liu, S. Q., Zhang, Y. W., Sun, W. J., 2011. Water-richness evaluation method of water-filled aquifer based on the principle of information fusion with GIS: Water-richness index method. Journal Of China Coal Society, 2011, 36(7): 1124-1128. https://doi.org/10.13225/j.cnki.jccs.2011.07.002 |
| [6] | Hou, E. K., Ji, Z. C., Che, X. Y., Wang, J. W., Gao, L. J., Tian, S. X., Yang, F., 2019. Water abundance prediction method of weathered bedrock based on improved AHP and the entropy weight method. Journal of China Coal Society, 2019, 44(10): 3164-3173. https://doi.org/10.13225/j.cnki.jccs.2018.1210 |
| [7] | Shi, L. Q., Zhang, R. A., Xu, D. J., 2020. Prediction of water inrush from floor based on GWO-Elman neural network. Journal Of China Coal Society, 2020, 45(07): 2455-2463. https://doi.org/10.13225/j.cnki.jccs.DZ20.0716 |
| [8] | Li, Z. J., 2010. Comprehensive Evaluation of Water-inrush Risk from Coal Floor by Both Water-inrush Coefficient and Fuzzy Cluster Methods. Mining Safety & Environmental Protection, 2010(1): 3. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1008-4495.2010.01.009 |
| [9] | Dong, F. Y., Yin, H. Y., Cheng, W. J., Li, Y. J., Qiu, M., Zhang, C. W., Tang, R. Q., Xu, G. L., Zhang, L. F., 2022. Study on water inrush pattern of Ordovician limestone in North China Coalfield based on hydrochemical characteristics and evolution processes: a case study in Binhu and Wangchao Coal Mine of Shandong Province, China. Journal of Cleaner Production. 380, 134954. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134954 |
| [10] | Dong, J. X., Shen, Z. L., Cao, L., Mi, J., Li, J. G., Zhao, Y. C., Mu, H. Y., Liu, L. P., Dai, C. R., 2023. Water-sand inrush risk assessment method of sandy dolomite tunnel and its application in the Chenaju tunnel, southwest of China, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 14: 1, https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2196369 |
| [11] | Xiao, L. L., Wu, Q., Niu, C., Dai, G. L., Wang, S. Q., Ren, D. J., Luo, S. T., 2020. Application of a new evaluation method for floor water inrush risk from the Ordovician fissure confined aquifer in Xiayukou coal mine, Shanxi, China. Carbonates and Evaporites, 2020, 35: 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13146-020-00629-x |
| [12] | Guo, Y. R., Dong, S. N., Hao Y. H, Liu, Z. B., Chyi Jim Yeh, T., Wang, W. K., Gao, Y. Q., Li, P., Zhang, M., 2020. Risk assessments of water inrush from coal seam floor during deep mining using a data fusion approach based on grey system theory. Complexity, 2020, 2020: 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8205370 |
| [13] | Chen, Y. F., Chen, L. W., Peng, Z. H., Zhang, M., Hu, Y. S., Oua, Q. H., Zhang, J., Tian, Y., Shi, X. P., 2023. An improved model to predict the water-inrush risk under an unconsolidated confined aquifer based on analytic hierarchy process and information value method, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 14: 1, https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2236277 |
| [14] | Yin, S. X., Wu, Z. Y., 2019. Quantitative Evaluation of Structural Complexity of Qianjiaying Mine Field. Safety In Coal Mines, 2019, 50(05): 218-221. https://doi.org/10.13347/j.cnki.mkaq.2019.05.053 |
| [15] | Zheng, Y. M., Wang, Y. D., Sun, H., Ge, X. R., 2022. Embankment Stability Evaluation Based on Improved FAHP. Journal of Gansu Sciences, 2022, 34(4): 91-97. https://doi.org/10.16468/j.cnki.issn1004-0366.2022.04.015 |
| [16] | Jiskani, I. M, Shah, S. A. A., Cai, Q. X., Zhou, W., Lu, X., 2020. A multi-criteria based SWOT analysis of sustainable planning for mining and mineral industry in Pakistan. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2020, 13: 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-06090-3 |
| [17] | Zhao, B. X., Liu, Q. M., Zhu, J. Z., 2023. Risk Assessment and Zonation of Roof Water Inrush Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Principle Component Analysis, and Improved Game Theory (AHP-PCA-IGT) Method. Sustainability, 2023, 15(14): 11375. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151411375 |
| [18] | Zhang, H., Wu, Q., 2020. Application of constant weight vulnerability index method of water-inrush from coal seam floor based on entropy method and FAHP. China Energy and Environmental Protection, 2020, 42(4): 1-5, 9. https://doi.org/10.19389/j.cnki.1003-0506.2020.04.001 |
| [19] | Liu, S. Q., Wu, Q., Li, Z., 2021. Vulnerability evaluation and application of floor water inrush in mining area withmultiple coal seams and single aquifer based on variable weight. Journal of China University of Mining &. Technology 2021 50(3): 587-597. https://doi.org/10.13247/j.cnki.jcumt.001290 |
