汕尾市水产业发展研究
湛江科技学院, 经济与金融学院, 广东湛江 524088
| 摘 要： | 根据对汕尾市水产业产值与海水养殖面积、淡水养殖面积、城市化率和全国人均GDP之间关系的实证研究结果，我们得出以下结论：(1) 城市化率对汕尾市水产品生产总值没有显著影响；(2) 海洋养殖面积、淡水养殖面积和中国国内人均GDP对汕尾市水产品生产总值有显著影响，具体来说，每增加1公顷的海洋养殖面积，汕尾市水产品生产总值平均增加259079元；每增加1公顷的淡水养殖面积，汕尾市水产品生产总值平均减少503215元；每增加1元的中国国内人均GDP，汕尾市水产品生产总值增加122625元；(3) 由于AR(6)、AR(9)和AR(15)进入了最终的模型，它们的综合影响是长期的，最长的影响时间达到15年，并且是负面影响。并基于研究发现给出大力发展海洋养殖业和适当降低淡水养殖规模的政策建议。 |
| 关 键 词： | 汕尾市; 水产业; 时间序列数据; 协整分析 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.wjeb.2024.01.002 |
View:
Downloads:
收稿日期: 2023-12-21
接受日期: 2024-01-24
在线出版日期: 2024-02-04
Research on the Development of Aquaculture Industry in Shanwei City
School of Economics and Finance, Zhanjiang Institute of Science and Technology, Zhanjiang 524088, China
| Abstract: | Based on the empirical research on the relationship between the output value of the aquaculture industry in Shanwei City and the area of marine aquaculture, freshwater aquaculture, urbanization rate, and per capita GDP in China, we draw the following conclusions: (1) The urbanization rate does not have a significant impact on the total output value of aquatic products in Shanwei City; (2) The area of marine aquaculture, freshwater aquaculture, and per capita GDP have a significant impact on the total output value of aquatic products in Shanwei City. Specifically, for every 1 hectare increase in marine aquaculture area, the total output value of aquatic products in Shanwei City increases by an average of 259,079 yuan; for every 1 hectare increase in freshwater aquaculture area, the total output value of aquatic products in Shanwei City decreases by an average of 503,215 yuan; for every 1 yuan increase in per capita GDP, the total output value of aquatic products in Shanwei City increases by 122,625 yuan; (3) Due to the inclusion of AR(6), AR(9), and AR(15) in the final model, their combined impact is long-term, with the longest impact lasting up to 15 years, and it is negative. Based on the research findings, policy recommendations are given to vigorously develop marine aquaculture and appropriately reduce the scale of freshwater aquaculture. |
| Keywords: | Shanwei City; Aquaculture Industry; Time Series Data; Cointegration Analysis |
参考文献
| [1] | Gordon H S. The Economic Theory of Common-Property Resources [J]. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 1954, 62(1-2): 124-124. |
| [2] | Zugravu A. The Fisheries and Aquaculture Component of Rural Development [J]. Annals of Dunrea De Jos University Fascicle I Economics and Applied Informatics, 2006, (1): 155-160. |
| [3] | Ayoola S. O. Sustainable fish production in Africa [J]. African Journal of food, agriculture, volume 10, Issue 05.2010. P1-9. |
| [4] | Jang Ho Geun; Yamazaki Satoshi. Community-level analysis of correlated fish production in fisheries and aquaculture: The case of Japan [J]. Marine Policy 2020. PP 104-124. |
| [5] | 林香红, 韦有周, 王占坤, 郑莉, 张潇娴, 周洪军. 我国海洋渔业发展政策及对策建议研究 [J]. 中国渔业经济, 2014, 32(05): 12-18. |
| [6] | 石胜男. 渔业经济发展现状及对策分析 [J]. 广东蚕业, 2020, 54(05): 121-122. |
| [7] | 康萌, 张澜澜, 焦长军. 发挥水面资源优势发展壮大渔业经济 [J]. 黑龙江水产, 2020, 39(03): 4-7. |
| [8] | 徐恩林. 我国沿海渔业经济增长方式转变与发展建议实证研究 [J]. 赤子(上中旬), 2014(20): 297. |
| [9] | 唐启升. 中国发展渔业的优势及前景 [J]. 中国水产, 2005(02): 2-5. |
| [10] | 陈丽兵. 渔业经济发展现状及对策分析 [J]. 山西农经, 2021(12): 128-129. |
| [11] | 陈冰玲. 惠州市现代渔业发展现状及对策研究 [D]. 华南农业大学, 2017. |
| [12] | 童兴蓉. 茂名市现代渔业经济可持续发展路径研究 [D]. 广东海洋大学, 2019. |
| [13] | 姜中蛟. 我国海水工业化养殖产业发展对策研究 [D]. 大连海洋大学, 2018. |
| [14] | 王雁楠. 中国海洋渔业经济效率评价及与渔业经济增长脱钩研究 [D]. 辽宁师范大学, 2020. |
| [15] | 李晓燕. 中国海洋渔业生产结构变化及其影响因素的实证研究 [D]. 浙江大学, 2017. |
| [16] | 钟皓凡, 吕华鲜. 基于Eviews的贵阳市旅游业影响因素分析 [J]. 武汉商学院学报, 2020. |
| [17] | 邹金辉. 浙江农村经济发展影响因素的实证研究分析 [J]. 中小企业管理与科技(上旬刊), 2021(07): 51-52. |
| [18] | 彭婵娟, 徐学荣. 福建省农业贷款对农林牧渔总产值影响的实证分析 [J]. 福建农林大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2012, 15(03): 37-41. |
