“十四五”期间北京市公民科学素质达标率测算
1. 中国社会科学院大学, 应用经济学院, 北京 102488
2. 北京市科学技术研究院, 科技智库中心, 北京 100048
3. 中国林业生态发展促进会, 中国生态发展研究院, 北京 100013
| 摘 要： | 北京市作为四个中心，是国家创新体系的重要组成部分，也是社会发展的重要动力，北京市公民科学素质成为当代社会的重要标尺。通过对北京市2015-2020年北京市公民科学素质达标率的非连续样本数据进行插补、使用经L-Q方法改进的灰色系统GM(1,1)模型测算，得到2021-2025年的北京市公民科学素质达标率，结果表明北京公民科学素质达标率稳步上升，从2024年将突破30%，2025年时将达到35.26%，远超《全民科学素质行动规划纲要（2021－2035年）》中2025年我国公民具备科学素质的比例要超过15%的目标要求以及2035年远景目标。同时，本文给出完善北京科普工作的建议：以小样本方法测算达标率发展趋势以指导工作、推动科普领域新基建与传统基建协调发展、加强科学普及体系化推进以及注重科普服务精准化供给。 |
| 关 键 词： | 科学素质达标率; L-Q; GM(1,1); 插补 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.wjeb.2022.01.001 |
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收稿日期: 2022-08-26
接受日期: 2022-10-14
在线出版日期: 2023-01-12
Calculation of the Rate of Reaching the Standard of Beijing Citizens' Scientific Quality During the 14th Five Year Plan Period——Based on the L-Q GM(1,1)
1. School of Applied Economics, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488, China
2. Science and Technology Think Tank Hub, Beijing Academy of Science and Technology, Beijing 100048, China
3. Institute of Eco Development, CEDA, Beijing 100013, China
| Abstract: | As one of the four centers, Beijing is an important part of the national innovation system and an important driving force of social development. The scientific quality of Beijing citizens has become an important yardstick of contemporary society. By interpolating the discontinuous sample data of Beijing citizens' scientific quality compliance rate from 2015 to 2020 and using the grey system GM (1,1) model improved by the L-Q method to calculate, the Beijing citizens' scientific quality compliance rate from 2021 to 2025 is obtained. The results show that the Beijing citizens' scientific quality compliance rate is steadily rising, and will exceed 30% from 2024 and reach 35.26% by 2025, This is far beyond the target that the proportion of Chinese citizens with scientific quality should exceed 15% by 2025 and the long-term goal of 2035 in the outline of the action plan for the scientific quality of the whole people (2021-2035). At the same time, this paper gives suggestions to improve Beijing's science popularization work: measure the development trend of the compliance rate with the small sample method to guide the work, promote the coordinated development of new infrastructure and traditional infrastructure in the field of science popularization, strengthen the systematic promotion of science popularization, and pay attention to the accurate supply of science popularization services. |
| Keywords: | Standard Rate of Scientific Quality; L-Q; GM(1,1); Interpolation |
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