不确定信念行为理论的构建研究
1. 浙江大学, 国家健康医疗大数据国家研究院数智健康行为研究与管理中心, 浙江杭州 310058
2. 暨南大学, 基础医学与公共卫生学院, 广东广州 510632
| 摘 要： | 不确定性是事物的固有属性，且已成为当代社会的常态。在此背景下，健康行为的发生必然与不确定性产生紧密联系。然而，现有的健康行为理论尚未将不确定性纳入其框架。填补了文献空白，本文将不确定性融入现有的认知健康行为理论框架，构建了不确定信念行为理论。该理论通过将不确定性与认知信念结合，探讨了在不确定情境下人们决策的社会行为机制。文章首先对现有文献进行了梳理与思考，深入理解了事物的不确定性属性和现象，论证了不确定性融入认知健康行为理论体系的合理性和可行性。在此基础上，应用真实世界数据对所构架的理论进行了验证。多元线性回归分析结果显示，在考虑不确定性的情况下，危险性感知与高血压预防行为之间呈现显著的正向关联（β = 0.397, p < 0.001）。进一步分析显示，不确定性所引发的“迷茫感”在危险性感知与高血压预防行为之间起到了显著的中介作用（β = -0.100, p < 0.05），其效应值占总效应的25.2%，表明具有部分中介作用。最后，文章对不确定信念行为理论的理解和应用进行了讨论。不确定信念行为理论能够更好地解释个体在复杂环境下的健康行为，并为制定更加有效的干预策略提供理论基础。本文仅涉及认知健康行为理论，未来的研究可考虑将不确定性融入其他理论框架，推动健康行为研究向更广阔的方向发展，从而更好地应对日益复杂的公共健康挑战。 |
| 关 键 词： | 不确定性; 社会环境; 健康行为理论; 感知信念; 不确定性压力 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.ssrf.2026.01.002 |
View:
Downloads:
收稿日期: 2026-01-29
接受日期: 2026-02-10
在线出版日期: 2026-02-26
Research on Constructing of Uncertainty Belief Behavior Theory
1. Research Center for Digital and Intelligent Health Behavior Theory and Management, Zhejiang University National Health Big Data Institute, Hangzhou 310058, China
2. School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| Abstract: | Uncertainty is an inherent property of things and has become a norm in contemporary society. In this context, the occurrence of health behaviors is inevitably closely linked to uncertainty. However, existing health behavior theories have yet to incorporate uncertainty into their framework. This paper addresses a gap in the existing literature by incorporating uncertainty into the cognitive health behavior framework, thereby developing the Uncertainty Belief Behavior Theory. By combining uncertainty with cognitive beliefs, this theory explores the social behavioral mechanisms behind decision-making in uncertain situations. The paper first reviews and reflects on the existing literature, deepening the understanding of the attributes and phenomena of uncertainty. It argues for the rationale and feasibility of integrating uncertainty into the cognitive health behavior theory framework. Based on this foundation, real-world data were used to empirically test the proposed theory. The results of multiple linear regression analysis show that, when accounting for uncertainty, there is a significant positive association between risk perception and hypertension prevention behavior (β = 0.397, p < 0.001). Further analysis reveals that the "confusion" caused by uncertainty plays a significant mediating role between risk perception and hypertension prevention behavior (β = -0.100, p < 0.05), accounting for 25.2% of the total effect, indicating a partial mediation effect. Finally, the paper discusses the understanding and application of the Uncertainty Belief Behavior Theory. By introducing the concept of uncertainty belief, the theory provides a better explanation for individual health behaviors in complex environments and offers a theoretical foundation for designing more effective intervention strategies. This study focuses solely on cognitive health behavior theory. Future research could consider integrating uncertainty into other theoretical frameworks, thus broadening the scope of health behavior research and better addressing the increasingly complex public health challenges. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty; Social Environment; Health Behavior Theory; Perceived Belief; Uncertainty Stress |
参考文献
| [1] | 杨廷忠. 健康研究: 社会与行为理论及方法 [M]. 北京: 人民卫生出版社, 2025. |
| [2] | Knight, F. H. Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit [M]. Houghton Mifflin, 1921. |
| [3] | Heisenberg, W. Über den anschaulichen Inhalt der quantentheoretischen Kinematik und Mechanik [J]. Zeitschrift für Physik, 1927, 43(3–4): 172–198. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01397280 |
| [4] | Simon, H. A. Models of Man: Social and Rational [M]. Wiley, 1957. |
| [5] | Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. In: Handbook of the fundamentals of financial decision making: Part I [C], 2013: 99-127. |
| [6] | Beck, U. Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity [M]. London: Sage, 1992. |
| [7] | Lazarus, R. S., & Folkman, S. Stress, Appraisal, and Coping [M]. Springer, 1984. |
| [8] | Kruglanski, A. W. Motivated social cognition: Need for closure effects on individuals’ judgment and decision-making [J]. Psychological Review, 1996, 103(2): 263–283. https://doi.org/10.1006/jesp.1996.0012 |
| [9] | 杨廷忠, 黄晶晶, 吴秀娟, 等. 城市居民社会转型心理压力研究 [J]. 中国行为医学科学, 2007, 16(4): 331-333. |
| [10] | Yang, T., Peng, S., Oliffe, J. L., & Zhang, W. Geographical Disparities of Uncertainty Stress and Life Stress Among University Students: A Study Across All Provinces in Mainland China [J]. Stress and Health, 2025, 41(1): e70009. https://doi.org/10.1002/smi.70009 |
| [11] | Peters, A., McEwen, B. S., & Friston, K. Uncertainty and stress: Why it causes diseases and how it is mastered by the brain [J]. Progress in Neurobiology, 2017, 156: 164–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pneurobio.2017.05.004 |
| [12] | Wu, D., Yu, L., Yang, T., Cottrell, R., Peng, S., Guo, W., & Jiang, S. The Impacts of Uncertainty Stress on Mental Disorders of Chinese College Students: Evidence From a Nationwide Study [J]. Frontiers in Psychology, 2020, 11: 243. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00243 |
| [13] | Peng, S., Yang, T., & Rockett, I. R. Life stress and uncertainty stress: which is more associated with unintentional injury? [J]. Psychology, Health & Medicine, 2020, 25(6): 774-780. https://doi.org/13548506.2019.1687913 |
| [14] | Yang, Q., Wu, Z., Yang, X., Jiang, S., Wu, D., & Oliffe, J. L. Associations between uncertainty stress, life stress and internet addiction among medical students [J]. Frontiers in Public Health, 2022, 9: 809484. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.809484 |
| [15] | Hayaen, J. Introduction to health behavior theory [M]. New England: Jones & Bartlett Learning, 2022. |
| [16] | 杨国枢. 中国人 [M]. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社, 2004. |
| [17] | 杨廷忠. 感知信念-参照规范影响理论: 一个文化适宜健康行为模式的构建与实证 [J]. 中国热带医学, 2019, 19(12): 3. |
| [18] | Ajzen, I. The theory of planned behavior [J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1991, 50(2): 179-211. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(91)90020-T |
| [19] | Espedido, A., & Searle, B. J. Proactivity, stress appraisals, and problem-solving: A cross-level moderated mediation model [J]. Work & Stress, 2021, 35(2): 132-152. https://doi.org/10.1080/02678373.2020.1767723 |
| [20] | Preacher, K. J., & Hayes, A. F. Asymptotic and resampling strategies for assessing and comparing indirect effects in multiple mediator models [J]. Behavior Research Methods, 2008, 40(3): 879-891. https://doi.org/10.3758/BRM.40.3.879 |
| [21] | Weinstein, N. D. Perceived probability, perceived severity, and health-protective behavior [J]. Health Psychology, 2000, 19(1): 65. https://doi.org/0278-6133.19.1.65 |
| [22] | Peng, S., Yang, X. Y., Yang, T., Zhang, W., & Cottrell, R. R. Uncertainty stress, and its impact on disease fear and prevention behavior during the COVID-19 epidemic in China: a panel study [J]. American Journal of Health Behavior, 2021, 45(2): 334-341. https://doi.org/10.5993/AJHB.45.2.12 |
| [23] | Brewer, N. T., Chapman, G. B., Gibbons, F. X., Gerrard, M., McCaul, K. D., & Weinstein, N. D. Meta-analysis of the relationship between risk perception and health behavior: the example of vaccination [J]. Health Psychology, 2007, 26(2): 136. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-6133.26.2.136 |
| [24] | Mossman, D. Risk perception and health behavior: A framework for the health risk behavior literature [J]. Psychology and Health, 2009, 24(3): 371-389. https://doi.org/110.1080/08870440801925979 |
| [25] | Falomir, J. M., & Invernizzi, F. The role of social influence and smoker identity in resistance to smoking cessation [J]. Swiss Journal of Psychology/Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Psychologie/Revue Suisse de Psychologie, 1999, 58(2): 73. https://doi.org/10.1080/08870440801902519 |
| [26] | Berthet, V. The impact of cognitive biases on professionals’ decision-making: A review of four occupational areas [J]. Frontiers in Psychology, 2022, 12: 802439. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.802439 |
| [27] | 杨廷忠. 个体认知与社会影响跨层次理论的构建研究 [J]. 社会科学研究前沿, 2023, 2(1): 33-37. https://doi.org/10.57237/j.ssrf.2023.01.004 |
| [28] | 杨廷忠. 社会结构行为理论及跨层次形式 [J]. 医学研究前沿, 2023, 2(4): 175-182. https://doi.org/10.57237/jmrf.2023.04.004 |
