宜昌橙地理分布区预测及其气候变化影响研究
1. 西南林业大学, 林学院, 云南昆明 650224
2. 国家林业和草原局管理干部学院, 北京 102600
| 摘 要： | 宜昌橙（Citrus cavaleriei Levl. ex Cavaler.）为中国特有的抗寒性较强的野生柑橘种质资源。本文旨在了解宜昌橙在中国的生长适生区及不同气候变化情景下对其地理分布的影响，为宜昌橙的资源开发及保护提供参考依据。本文结合不同时期的环境数据，利用MaxEnt模型预测宜昌橙在中国各时期的适生区，并通过ArcGIS软件和SDMtools工具分析不同时期宜昌橙的适生区变化特点与质心迁移路线等。基于MaxEnt模型预测宜昌橙适宜区结果AUC平均值大于0.95，建模结果达到极好的标准；当前宜昌橙在中国主要分布在云南、四川、重庆、湖北、贵州、湖南、广西、甘肃、陕西等省区，在基准气候条件下，宜昌橙在中国的适生区总面积为144.82×104 km2，其中最适生区主要位于贵州、重庆、四川和湖南；在未来2050年RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，宜昌橙在中国的适生区面积较基准气候下的适生区面积分别增加22.20×104 km2和29.80×104 km2；随着气候的变化，在未来2070年的RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，宜昌橙在中国的适生区较2050年有所收缩，与2050年同一情景比较收缩面积分别为81.76×104 km2（RCP4.5）和12.17×104 km2（RCP8.5），在RCP8.5情景下更有利于宜昌橙的生长；从基准气候到未来2050年和2070年，宜昌橙的适生区质心先向东迁移，之后又向西南方向迁移，其中RCP8.5情景下的质心迁移距离要大于RCP4.5情景下的迁移距离。 |
| 关 键 词： | 宜昌橙; 分布区预测; 适生区; 气候变化 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.res.2024.04.001 |
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收稿日期: 2024-09-04
接受日期: 2024-09-24
在线出版日期: 2024-10-26
Studies on Geographical Distribution Prediction of Cirtus caraleriei in China and Influences of Climate Change
1. College of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
2. National Academy of Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 102600, China
| Abstract: | The species Citrus cavaleriei Levl. ex Cavaler. is an unique wild Citrus germplasm resource with strong cold-resistance in China. The purpose of this paper is to understand the suitable areas of growth of C. cavaleriei in China and the influence of different climate change scenarios on its geographical distribution, and to provide reference for the development and protection of C. cavaleriei resources. Combined with the environmental data of different periods, this paper uses MaxEnt model to predict the suitable growing areas of C. cavaleriei in different periods in China, and uses ArcGIS software and SDMtools to analyze the changing characteristics of suitable growing areas and centroid migration routes of C. cavaleriei in different periods. The average AUC values are all larger than 0.95. The modeling results meet excellent standards. At present, C. cavaleriei is mainly distributed in Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Guizhou, Hunan, Guangxi, Gansu, and Shanxi provinces in China. Under the benchmark climatic conditions, the total suitable area of C. cavaleriei in China is 144.82×104 km2, among which the most suitable areas are mainly located in Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan and Hunan provinces. In 2050, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the suitable area of C. cavaleriei in China will increase by 22.20×104 km2 and 29.80×104 km2; respectively compared with that under the reference climate. With climate change, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in 2070, the suitable area of C. cavaleriei in China has shrunk compared with that in 2050. Compared with the same scenario in 2050, the shrinking area is 81.76×104 km2 (RCP4.5) and 12.17×104 km2 (RCP8.5), respectively. RCP8.5 scenario is more beneficial to C. cavaleriei from the baseline climate to the next 2050 and 2070, the centroid of C. cavaleriei suitable area first moved eastward and then moved southwest, and the migration distance in RCP8.5 scenario was greater than that in RCP4.5 scenario. |
| Keywords: | Citrus cavaleriei; Distribution Prediction; Suitable Area; Climate Change |
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