基于SPEI指数的新疆干旱时空变化特征分析
温泉县气象局, 新疆温泉 833500
| 摘 要： | 新疆是中国面积最大，最为干旱的地区，受自然地理位置等因素影响，干旱已经成为新疆典型的自然灾害之一，具有发生频率高、影响范围广、危害程度大的特点，给农林业、生态和经济发展都造成了很大的损失。所以分析该地区干旱的时空变化对合理应对干旱事件，降低干旱造成的损失具有重要意义。本文通过获取到的53个气象站点的标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI），结合线性回归、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析对SPEI指数进行季节和年尺度时空变化分析以及周期提取。结果表明：1961-2020年新疆地区年尺度呈干旱化趋势；空间上，轻旱在新疆大部分地区都存在，中旱主要发生在北疆地区，重旱存在个别站点，极旱发生在南疆地区；新疆地区春季干旱变化得主周期为28、12、6a，夏季主周期为6、8、15a，秋季得主周期为16、10、6、4a，冬季得主周期为13a，年尺度干旱周期为13、6a。新疆整体上呈现干旱化趋势；空间分布上南疆比北疆干旱程度更严重；轻旱和中旱的频率较高；干旱周期变化上主要以13a为主。 |
| 关 键 词： | SPEI; 干湿变化; 干旱频率; 新疆 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.res.2024.03.002 |
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收稿日期: 2024-06-16
接受日期: 2024-08-05
在线出版日期: 2024-09-09
Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Drought in Xinjiang Based on SPEI Index
Wenquan County Meteorological Bureau, Hot Spring 833500, China
| Abstract: | Xinjiang is the largest and most arid area in China. Affected by natural geographical location and other factors, drought has become one of the typical natural disasters in Xinjiang. It has the characteristics of high frequency, wide range of influence and great harm, which has caused great losses to agriculture, forestry, ecology and economic development. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of drought in the region to reasonably respond to drought events and reduce the losses caused by drought. In this paper, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) of 53 meteorological stations was obtained. Combined with linear regression, Mann-Kendall mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis, the SPEI index was used to analyze the seasonal and annual spatial and temporal changes and cycle extraction. The results showed that the annual scale in Xinjiang showed a trend of drought from 1961 to 2020. In space, light drought exists in most parts of Xinjiang, moderate drought mainly occurs in northern Xinjiang, severe drought exists in individual stations, and extreme drought occurs in southern Xinjiang. The main period of spring drought change in Xinjiang is 28, 12, 6a, the main period of summer is 6, 8, 15a, the main period of autumn is 16, 10, 6, 4a, the main period of winter is 13a, and the annual scale drought period is 13, 6a. Xinjiang as a whole shows a trend of drought; in terms of spatial distribution, the drought degree in southern Xinjiang is more serious than that in northern Xinjiang; the frequency of light drought and moderate drought is higher; the change of drought cycle is mainly 13a. |
| Keywords: | SPEI; Dry and Wet Changes; Frequency of Drought; Xinjiang |
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