基于Markov模型的聚乙二醇洛塞那肽治疗2型糖尿病的药物经济学评价
1. 广西中医药大学, 赛恩斯新医药学院医学系, 广西南宁 530222
2. 广西中医药大学, 研究生学院, 广西南宁 530222
| 摘 要： | 目的 对聚乙二醇洛塞那肽（PEX168）治疗2型糖尿病（T2DM）进行经济学评价。方法 基于临床实验数据，构建Markov模型，模拟预测安慰剂、PEX168/100μg、PEX168/200μg各方案长期成本及效用。结果 模拟30年疾病进展后，PEX168/100μg组和PEX168/200μg组患者死亡率较安慰剂组分别降低2.72%，18%。与安慰剂组相比，使用PEX168/100μg和PEX168/200μg治疗效用值增加3.96，8.21 QALYs，ICER分别为20551.53元/QALYs和25218.80元/QALYs，小于阈值（λ）即85698元，增加成本可接受。敏感性分析中进行成本±20%，效用值±10%，贴现率0到8%的调整结果验证了模型的稳定性。概率敏感性分析结果显示，当意愿支付值为λ时PEX168/100μg和PEX168/200μg具有经济性的概率为99.99%。且比起PEX168/100μg，使用PEX168/200μg治疗更具成本-效用。结论 对于T2DM患者，使用PEX168治疗是更具成本-效用的方案。 |
| 关 键 词： | 聚乙二醇洛塞那肽; 2型糖尿病; 成本-效用; Markov模型 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.mrf.2024.03.002 |
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收稿日期: 2024-10-07
接受日期: 2024-11-20
在线出版日期: 2024-12-05
Pharmacoeconomic Evaluation of Polyethylene Glycol Losenatide for the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Based on Markov Modeling
1. Department of Medicine, Faculty of Chinese Medicine Science, Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanning 530222, China
2. Graduate School, Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanning 530222, China
| Abstract: | Objective An economic evaluation of polyethylene glycol losenatide (PEX168) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods Based on clinical trial data, Markov models were constructed to simulate and predict the long-term cost and utility of each regimen of placebo, PEX168/100 μg, and PEX168/200 μg. Results After simulating 30 years of disease progression, patients in the PEX168/100 μg and PEX168/200 μg groups had a 2.72% and 18% reduction in mortality compared to the placebo group, respectively. Treatment with PEX168/100 μg and PEX168/200 μg increased the utility value by 3.96, 8.21 QALYs with ICER of $20,551.53/QALYs and $25,218.80/QALYs, respectively, which is less than the threshold (λ) i.e., $85,698, and the increase in cost is acceptable, as compared to the placebo group. The results of the sensitivity analysis with cost ± 20%, utility value ± 10%, and discount rate 0 to 8% adjustments verified the stability of the model. The results of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the probability that PEX168/100 μg and PEX168/200 μg are economical when the willingness-to-pay value is λ is 99.99%. and that treatment with PEX168/200μg was more cost-utility than PEX168/100μg. Conclusion For patients with T2DM, treatment with PEX168 is the more cost-utility option. |
| Keywords: | Polyethylene Glycol Losenatide; Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus; Cost-utility; Markov Modeling |
基金
| 1. | 广西中医药大学赛恩斯新医药学院科研项目 (编号: 2022CX004, 2022MS008, 2022QJ001) |
| 2. | 广西中医药大学赛恩斯新医药学院国家级大学生创新训练项目 (编号: 202413643007) |
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