2021年中国的新冠病毒的发展预测和控制
1. 上海立信会计金融学院, 统计与数学学院, 上海 201620
2. 兰卡斯特大学, 金融学院, 兰卡斯特 LA2 0PF
| 摘 要： | 自从2019年底发现新冠病毒以来，新冠病毒开始在全球各国大流行，且毒株不断变异。我国实行的“动态清零”政策，取得了很好的防疫效果。在2021年春夏，中国大陆的本土复发毒株和境外输入的变异体Delta和Delta+毒株又形成一波疫情大流行。目的：为了进一步研究混合毒株的基本再生数和传染率等重要参数的变化情况，根据SAIR数学模型对于以后的确诊病例和无症状病例的数量风险进行了预测。并讨论各项防疫措施的效果。方法：使用了公式计算和数据拟合的方法。结果：重新计算得出了各项重要参数的数值，讨论了防疫措施的效果数据。结论：我们的SAIR模型模拟的确诊病例数，无症状感染者的数量，以及各项病例数的发展情况，与实际数据是符合的很好的。新的传染参数等数据说明了新的混合毒株的传染性比过去的原始毒株的有了很大的加强。特别地，无症状感染者的数量，比以前有了很大的增加。需要引起大家的重视。模拟显示了各项严格防疫措施是有效的，需要坚持严格防疫。 |
| 关 键 词： | 新型冠状病毒; SAIR模型; Delta毒株; 确诊病例; 无症状感染 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.mrf.2022.01.005 |
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收稿日期: 2022-08-30
接受日期: 2022-10-11
在线出版日期: 2023-01-05
Development, Prediction and Control of the COVID-19 in 2021 China
1. School of Statistics and Mathematics, Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance, Shanghai 201620, China
2. College of Finance, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA2 0PF, UK
| Abstract: | Since the discovery of COVID-19 at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has begun to circulate in various countries around the world, and the virus strains are constantly mutating. The policy of "dynamic zero clearing" implemented in China has achieved good epidemic prevention effect. In the spring and summer of 2021, the local recurrent strains in Chinese Mainland and the imported variants Delta strain and Delta+ strains formed another wave of epidemic. Objective: In order to further study the changes of important parameters such as the basic reproduction number and infection rate of mixed strains, the number risk of confirmed cases and asymptomatic cases in the future was predicted according to the SAIR mathematical model. The effects of various epidemic prevention measures are discussed. Methods: Formula calculation and data fitting were used. Results: The values of important parameters were calculated again, and the effect data of epidemic prevention measures were discussed. Conclusion: The number of confirmed cases, the number of asymptomatic infections, and the development of the number of cases simulated by our SAIR model are in good agreement with the actual data. The new infection parameters and other data show that the infectivity of the new mixed strains is much stronger than that of the original strains in the past. In particular, the number of asymptomatic infections has increased significantly. We need to draw everyone's attention. The simulation shows that all strict epidemic prevention measures are effective, and strict epidemic prevention should be adhered to. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; SAIR Model; Delta Strain; Confirmed Case; Asymptomatic Case |
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