1. 中国科学技术大学, 火灾科学国家重点实验室, 安徽合肥 230027
2. 广东省林业科学研究院, 广东广州 510520
| 摘 要: | 对未来森林火灾概率和火灾的严重程度进行预测,可以为制定全球生态防火和环境保护政策提供依据。本文着力探讨火制度及其构建基础,以促进对火制度参数和生态系统作用机制的预测性理解。通过呈现遥感技术和火灾模型等在火制度研究和预测中的应用,展示火制度参数研究进展和成果,特别关注气候变化下植被特征对火制度的影响。研究表明,火制度从区域到全球范围具有明显的时空特征,火制度、植被和气候之间的联系紧密,未来火制度可能受气候变化主导。基于此,未来火制度研究需要更进一步跨时空研究火灾过程,在量化火制度参数的同时,不断探索气候变化导致火制度变化的机制和控制措施。火制度研究作为一种林火管理基础将得以持续发展。 |
| 关 键 词: | 火制度; 研究参数; 构建基础; 林火生态; 植被可燃性; 火灾模型 |
| DOI: | 10.57237/j.jaf.2023.01.003 |
1. State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230027, China
2. Guangdong Academy of Forestry Sciences, Guangzhou 510520, China
| Abstract: | Prediction of future fire probability and severity lays the foundation for formulating ecological fire prevention and global environmental protection policies. The present work focuses on overview of the fire regimes and their constitution basis to promote the understanding on the fire regime parameters and the related mechanism operated in the ecosystem. Through the application of remote sensing technology and fire models in fire regime research and predictions, research progress and achievements were made in systematically quantifying the fire characteristic parameters, with the emphasis on the influence of forest stand characteristics on fire regimes under climate change. It has been well understood that the fire regimes have obvious spatiotemporal characteristics from regional to global scale, and the fire regimes are closely related to forest stands and climate. The future fire regimes are likely to be dominated by climate changes. For this reason, the future research on fire regimes needs to further study the spatiotemporal fire process and quantify the parameters of fire regimes through constantly exploring the mechanism of the fire regimes driven by climate changes and the control measures; meanwhile, the research on fire regimes will continue to serve as a basis for forest fire management. |
| Keywords: | Fire Regime; Evaluation Parameter; Constitution Basis; Forest Fire Ecology; Vegetation Flammability; Fire Model |
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