一种模糊加权滑动平均对增暖实况的分析
中国科学院, 沙漠与沙漠化重点实验室, 甘肃兰州 730000
| 摘 要： | 本文先提出一种模糊加权滑动平均（FWMA）算法，能较好完成对序列头、尾部分的计算。随后，分别对CO2累积排放量较大的前6个国家及加拿大、全球的年平均温度距平和标准偏差两种统计量，应用FWMA计算出各方的年代际变化趋势并进行比较。继而对‘海/陆增温对比’问题再作计算分析。应用结果有意外的发现：①年平均温度距平序列的FWMA曲线显示，除印度外，6个国家的增温都强于全球，但7个国家之间增温程度的排序与CO2累积排放量的排序差别很大。②对其标准偏差统计量的计算结果与距平相比，却能更好地反映7个国家增暖排序与其CO2累计排放量的关联。但是全球增暖的程度却反而比所有7个国家都高，其原因是由于全球的气候变率明显小于7个国家。③‘海/陆增温对比’现象仅仅出现在其距平序列中，但在标准偏差序列里却全然消失了。原因在于大陆气温与海表水温之间气候变率的巨大差异。④全球温度的FWMA曲线显示更接近于海表水温。 |
| 关 键 词： | 模糊加权滑动平均（FWMA）; 气候变化; CO2排放; 年平均温度; 距平; 标准偏差; 陆/海增暖对比 |
| DOI： | 10.57237/j.earth.2022.01.005 |
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收稿日期: 2023-01-03
接受日期: 2023-02-16
在线出版日期: 2023-03-02
A Fuzzy Weighted Moving Average to Analyze Actual Warming
Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
| Abstract: | This article firstly proposes a fuzzy weighted moving average (FWMA) to compute well for the beginning and end parts. Then, the FWMA is applied to both of the annual anomalies and the annual standardized differences (variance adjusted anomalies) of temperature among the six top nations or regions of cumulative CO2 emissions, Canada and the globe to reveal and compare the interdecadal trends. The related topic of ‘land/sea warming contrast’ was re-analyzed with the FWMA. The main findings are somewhat unexpected as follows: (1) The FWMA curves of anomalies showed that all six nations got warming up stronger than the globe except for India. But the sequence order of the nation’s warming extents in the last decade were much different from those of nation’s cumulative CO2 emissions. (2) The FWMA of the annual standardized differences of temperature showed much better than the annual anomalies. The sequence order of nation’s warming up agreed with that of the cumulative CO2 emissions among the seven nations. In contrary, the globe got warming obviously higher than all the seven nations or regions. The direct reason, in statistics, is that the climatologic variance of the globe is much smaller than all the seven nations, in statistics. (3) The related phenomena of ‘land/sea warming contrast’ appeared only in their anomalies, but disappeared all in the standardized differences. The direct reason is depended upon the around 2 times of difference of the climatologic variance between the land and sea. (4) The FWMA curves for the globe actually much closes to that of the sea than the land. |
| Keywords: | Fuzzy Weighted Moving Average (FWMA); Climate Change; CO2 Emission; Annual Temperature; Anomalies; Standardized Differences; Land/Sea Warming Contrast |
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