Study on the Influence of Population Structure on the Price of Commercial Housing in Jilin Province
Department of Mathematics, Yanbian University, Yanji 133002,
| Abstract: | In recent years, under a series of national real estate policies, the increase in the average sales price of commercial housing in China has slowed down significantly. However, the real estate market is still attracting attention. The high housing prices have brought a heavy burden to the lives of ordinary people. Since the population is the main participant in commercial housing transactions, this article attempts to use the VAR model from the perspective of population structure to explore its effect on the price of commercial housing in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2019. This article selects six population structure variables, performs stationarity and cointegration tests after data processing, builds a VAR model, and conducts stability tests and Granger causality tests, so as to obtain the main population structure that affects the price of commercial housing in Jilin Province factor. At last, impulse response and variance decomposition methods are used to analyze the impact of each index on the price of commercial housing in Jilin Province. The results show that the family size and the per capita disposable income of urban residents will have a certain impact on the price of commercial housing in Jilin Province. For the price of commercial housing, the family size has a relatively long-term inhibitory effect, while the disposable per capita income of urban residents has a relatively long-term promotion effect. In a relatively short period of time, the main factor affecting its changes is the housing price itself. Based on the research conclusions, this article puts forward suggestions such as adhering to house purchase restriction policies such as purchase restriction and loan restriction, increasing the per capita disposable income of urban residents, and reasonable adjustment of residential units according to the size of the family. |
| Keywords: | Population Structure; Commodity Housing Prices; VAR Model |
| DOI: | 10.57237/j.wjeb.2024.01.001 |
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Received: 23 November 2023
Accepted: 27 December 2023
Published Online: 4 February 2024
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