Predicting the Potential Suitable Areas and Variation of Toddalia asiatica in China Under Different Climatic Conditions
1. Faculty of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
2. National Academy of Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 102600, China
| Abstract: | The species Toddalia asiatica (L.) Lam. has many values; with the strengthening of its development and utilization in recent years, wild resources are gradually decreasing. Based on the extensive specimen records, by using an optimized MaxEnt ecological model, the potential distribution of the suitable habitat of T. asiatica was predicted to understand suitable areas of T. asiatica in China and the changes of the suitable areas under different climate scenarios, which provides theoretical references for species protection, resource investigation, and introduction and cultivation of T. asiatica resources. The results showed that the medium suitable areas and high suitable areas of T. asiatica in China were mainly concentrated in tropical and subtropical monsoon climate areas such as South China, Southeast of Southwest China, West of Central China and South of East China, under the current climatic conditions. Under the future climate conditions, its suitable area has a tendency to migrate to the southwest with climate warming, and shows a trend of fragmentation. Compared with the current climatic conditions, the total suitable area showed a decreasing trend, but the high suitable area of T. asiatica increased under the SSPs126 and SSPs245 scenarios. This result may be related to global warming caused by increased carbon emissions. Under the future climatic conditions, the suitable areas for the expansion and contraction of T. asiatica are mainly distributed in the marginal areas of the whole suitable area, and the high suitable areas remain unchanged, which are distributed in most areas of Chongqing, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Guangdong, as well as parts of Yunnan, Sichuan, Fujian, Hainan, and Taiwan provinces. The two climatic factors of precipitation and temperature are the main causes and sources of differences limiting the geographical distribution of T. asiatica. Among them, bio18 (Precipitation of Warmest Quarter) and bio11 (Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter) are the dominant environmental variables limiting the distribution of T. asiatica. |
| Keywords: | Toddalia asiatica; MaxEnt Model; Potential Suitable Area; Limiting Factor |
| DOI: | 10.57237/j.jaf.2025.01.001 |
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Received: 7 October 2024
Accepted: 27 November 2024
Published Online: 2 January 2025
Funding
| 1. | 国家自然科学基金地区基金项目 (31360048, 31400181) |
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